Off the Ventilator: Niran Rehman on Pakistan Post-9/11 Economy

For over two decades, Pakistan’s economy has operated under a unique set of rules, heavily influenced by its geopolitical role in the post-9/11 world. But with the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, that era is definitively over. On the latest episode of Digitales, host Faizan Sayed sits down with finance and capital markets expert Niran Rehman to dissect this new reality and chart a path for survival. This isn’t just another economic debate; it’s an essential history lesson for anyone trying to understand why our country is on the brink and what it takes to pull it back.Niran frames the last 20 years as one long “post-9/11” cycle.

The Pakistan Factor

He argues that Pakistan’s relationship with the IMF and its access to global capital have been intrinsically linked to its strategic importance to the United States. During the height of the War on Terror, Pakistan received highly relaxed IMF conditions, access to the Coalition Support Fund, and a steady flow of dollars. This created periods of artificial economic boom, like the one seen from 2001 to 2007, characterized by easy credit, a pegged currency, and a surge in consumption. However, this money wasn’t invested in foundational pillars like health, education, or infrastructure.

The Technology Bet

When the geopolitical winds shifted, the artificial support vanished, and the underlying weaknesses were brutally exposed.Niran walks us through the tenures of successive governments,from Musharraf to PPP to PML-N and PTI,showing how each navigated the IMF with varying degrees of success, always with the shadow of Afghanistan looming in the background. He makes a compelling case that while every party made mistakes, they also achieved certain successes.

For instance, the PTI government’s “Roshan Digital Account” was a stroke of genius for attracting foreign currency, while the PML-N’s managed currency peg in 2016-18, though controversial, was a calculated move to handle critical debt repayments. The problem, he asserts, is that the net result of these boom-and-bust cycles has always been negative.Today, for the first time in a generation, Pakistan stands before the IMF without its geopolitical use.

The Policy Angle

The “Daddy’s credit card” has expired. The IMF’s conditions are no longer relaxed; they are the same stringent, textbook requirements faced by any other struggling nation. This means a market-driven currency, positive real interest rates, and painful structural reforms.So where do we go from here? Niran dismisses the idea of a single “silver bullet.”

What Comes Next

Instead, he lays out a pragmatic, multi-pronged strategy. The immediate first step is to build credibility with the global financial community. This can be achieved through two key actions: a successful 5G spectrum auction and a renewed, transparent push for the privatization of loss-making state-owned enterprises. These moves alone could generate billions and signal to the world that Pakistan is serious about reform.Ultimately, the conversation is a powerful call to action.

It urges us to move beyond short-term thinking and to stop waiting for a single political savior. The path forward requires tough, long-term decisions and a national belief in our own potential. As Faizan aptly puts it, the existential question facing every Pakistani today, from the entrepreneur to the citizen, is simple: “Do you believe in this country?”